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30 May 2010
Translated into Chinese by
Admin
Did An American Mine Sink
South Korean Ship? (1)
by Yoichi Shimatsu
Former editor of the Japan
Times, now an environmental consultant
and a commentator on Asian affairs for
CCTV-9 Dialogue
(News Analysis
Media)
South Korean Prime
Minister Lee Myung-bak has claimed
"overwhelming evidence" that a
North Korean torpedo sank the corvette
Cheonan on March 26, killing 46 sailors.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
claimed that there’s "overwhelming
evidence" in favor of the theory
that North Korea sank the South Korean Navy warship Cheonan. But
the articles of proof presented so far by
military investigators to an official
inquiry board have been scanty and
inconsistent.
There’s yet another
possibility, that a U.S. rising mine sank
the Cheonan in a friendly-fire accident.
In the recent U.S.-China
strategic talks in Shanghai and Beijing,
the Chinese side dismissed the official
scenario
presented by the Americans and their
South Korean allies as not credible. This
conclusion was based on an independent
technical assessment by the Chinese
military, according to a Beijing-based
military affairs consultant to the People
Liberation Army.
Hardly any of the relevant
facts that counter the official verdict
have made headline news in either South
Korea or its senior ally, the United
States.
南朝鲜总统李明博声称有大量证据无可辩驳地证明北朝鲜的鱼雷于三月26日炸沉了天安号，导致46个南朝鲜水兵死亡。美国国务卿稀拉痢也声称有大量证据不容质疑地证明北朝鲜炸毁了天安号，致使南朝鲜死了46名水兵。但事实是至今公布的证据不但数量很少而且前后矛盾。
那么为什么至今不公布确实无可辩驳不容置疑前后一致的证据呢？让我们看看另外一种可能性吧，那就是事实是美国的水雷炸沉了天安号。
在最近于上海举行的美中战略会谈中，中国对美国明确表示美韩所出示的证据不足信。中国这么说是有根据的，根据就是中国军方对此事的调查和评估。
但是任何与美韩结论相左的证据或观点都上不了美韩新闻媒体的头版。
The first telltale sign of
an official smokescreen involves the
location of the Choenan sinking -
Byeongnyeong Island (pronounced
Pyongnang) in the Yellow Sea. On the
westernmost fringe of South Korean
territory, the island is dominated by a
joint U.S.-Korean base for anti-submarine
warfare (ASW) operations. The sea channel
between Byeongnyeong and the North Korean
coast is narrow enough for both sides to
be in artillery range of each other.
Anti-sub warfare is based
on sonar and acoustic detection of
underwater craft. Since civilian traffic
is not routed through the channel, the
noiseless conditions are near-perfect for
picking up the slightest agitation, for
example from a torpedo and any submarine
that might fire it.
North Korea admits it does
not possess an underwater craft stealthy
enough to slip past the advanced sonar
and audio arrays around Byeongnyeong
Island, explained North Korean
intelligence analyst Kim Myong Chol in a
news release. "The sinking took
place not in North Korean waters but well
inside tightly guarded South Korean
waters, where a slow-moving North Korean
submarine would have great difficulty
operating covertly and safely, unless it
was equipped with AIP (air-independent
propulsion) technology."
首先让人起疑的一点是天安号的沉没地点：黄海中的平南岛。该岛处于南朝鲜海域最西端，是美韩联合防潜的军事要塞。此岛与北朝鲜领海之间的水上航道非常的狭窄，任何一方都在对方的大炮射程之内。
反潜战的基础是声纳和水下声波探测技术。由于民用船只不经过此一水域，声波监控的条件在这里可以说是一流的，任何细微的反常情况都可以被监测到，包括鱼雷及发射鱼雷的潜艇的行踪。
北朝鲜承认他们并不拥有足以在平南岛一带躲避声纳和音频探测器的水下航行器。北朝鲜情报分析专家金梦冲在新闻发布会上说：“天安号沉没的地点并不在北朝鲜海域，而是在南朝鲜重兵把守的南朝鲜（认定的他们的）领海一侧。除非北朝鲜的潜艇拥有不依赖空气的动力装置，北朝鲜的低速潜艇不可能进入该领域而不被发现。”
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