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When It Is Made of U.S. Money Notes (3)

27 March 2010
 

Realistically the U.S. is already bankrupt, since it has no capability to pay back the debt; but technically, the U.S. is not and will not be bankrupt, not for a while, as long as the US dollar is still the dominant international currency, since the U.S. can always print more notes when needed. On the other hand, if this is the case, it will inevitably cause the US dollar to lose its top credit rating hence lose its reserve currency status.

So let’s face it. There are only two credible ways for the US to move out of the current economic dilemma: either to get more money or to spend less money, which means Americans will have to work harder, pay more tax and lower their living standards.

However, if history is any guide, we shall know in no time that it is virtually suicidal for any US administration to increase tax, since American people hate it and will not vote such administration into office again. By the same token, Americans will not re-elect a government that makes them lower their standard of living.

During the election campaign, Barack Obama inspired the Americans with his message that “Time for change has come”, and that “Yes we can do it.”

Yes, the time for Americans to change their way of living has long come. But no, they can’t do it, since they are unwilling to. So the United States is doomed, unless, well, it makes an ultimate change at its roots, which means to change its culture.

Speaking of culture, there is a fundamental difference between the culture of the West, which is the foundation of the American culture, and that of the East, that is represented by China’s Confucianism. The former is based on the crude law of the jungle while the latter is a result of the sophisticated social study and experiment over a period of thousands of years with a vision of an universal humanity.

Since the Western culture worships the idea of "survival of the fittest", the mainstream thinking in the U.S. is that "As long as I can get by, I am doing the right thing". That explains why in their dealing with the West, Chinese are frequently disadvantaged.

[Western historians often lament on the fate of China’s Song Dynasty and attribute its demise to the fact of being over civilized in the world of 11th century when it was surrounded by the early form of Manchurians and the Mongols who were still in a blood-thirsty stone-age hunting culture. So you’ve got the idea.]

To Americans, it is nothing wrong to live a debt-live luxury life. In fact, they are proud of being able to do so, and you should be the one to feel ashamed if you can’t get your money back.

While over 100 million people are still struggling below the poverty line in China, Chinese government spent $700 billion to purchase U.S. treasury debt that has helped to support Americans' first-class lifestyle. Do you think Americans will ever be grateful to Chinese? Not a chance! Americans only consider Chinese government a fool. They are willing to borrow, and you are willing to lend, and business is done. They owe you nothing.

If one day Americans fail to repay the debt, do you think they will ever be troubled by their conscience? Again, not a chance! You offered a bad loan and it’s your problem. And that’s it.

Following this line of reasoning, we know we should not assume Americans will feel embarrassed to ask for more money from China. They will not, never. So long as China keeps lending, they believe it is an evidence that they’ve done a right thing by making a good business proposal.

Credit consumption is a way of life in the U.S. and has bee promoted by American economic gurus as an advanced economic model, which is explained through complicated mathematic computation based on an invalid assumption. The fake model had tricked the whole world, including Chinese, even though this is at odds with their thousands-year old practice, largely due to the undeniable reality of U.S. prosperity.

But the bubble finally burst in 2008. For this, I think year 2008 is a turning point in human civilization.

Over the years, the first task for a new Secretary of the Treasury of the U.S. is to sell U.S. Treasury bond to the world. There was no difference after Timothy Geithner took his portfolio last January. But when he addressed the students at Beijing University during his visit to China, and declared that it is safe to purchase T-Bill, he was greeted by a burst of laugher which rocked the hall.

Americans were very upset over the incident. They did not feel embarrassed for Geithner trying to mislead Chinese, but feel insulted by the students who refused to believe in the lies.

When I heard the news, I was delighted and thrilled. Finally, Americans’ scam has been uncovered by Chinese, and by Chinese students who no longer blindly worship the West and follow the celebrities. China has regained the confidence in their tradition and China has the future.

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Excerpt of the original post in Chinese written by YST:

美国的财政要能持续经营必须立刻开源节流,绝不能迟疑。欧巴马如果不做,下任总统才做恐怕就来不及了。

如何开源?说白了,就是加税。美国人答应吗?如何节流?说白了,就是过苦日子,少享乐,多工作。美国人答应吗?

上面两个问题美国人的答案一定是:不。

想想美国的历史,当年美国人为什么要打独立战争?原因就是英国人抽税太厉害,人民不答应。不愿被加税是美国人的传统与立国精神。今天即使加税是经济正确,也绝不是政治正确,所以行不通。美国政客不是傻瓜。

举个最简单的例子,欧巴马总统认为金融界的领导人太自私了,于是纾困的时候订下金融界的人士年薪不得超过50万。欧巴马的决定是正确的,也有民意基础,大家都痛恨「肥猫」。但是金融界的头头们不服,「高盛」在拼命归还政府的纾困贷款后,首席执行长立刻给自己一亿美元的红利犒赏。你能怎样?

让我们看清时势,抛弃对美国不切实际的幻想。欧巴马不会有什么作为,他不可能改变美国。

从实际基本面来说,根据普通常识,现在的美国政府形同破产,因为她已经没有偿还债务的能力;

从技术基本面来说,也根据普通常识,现在的美国政府不会破产,因为她的负债都是以美元计价,美国必要时可以印钞票还债。不过这样一来,美国就成为她自己口中常说的「流氓国家」了,有可能变成过街老鼠。

说到解决之道,无论开源还是节流都属于正道。不过开源节流的解决方法属于东方式的,以西方人的侵略个性绝不会这么做。

西方人有一个和儒家思想非常不同的哲学,那就是:

只要我能够得手,我做的事就是对的。

上面这个哲学思想在西方非常普遍,属于主流思想。这是一种非常具有侵略性和非常霸道的思想,中国人觉得不可思议,西方人觉得天经地义。

中国人跟西方人打交道经常吃亏,道理就在这里;中国的外交经常受挫,道理也在这里。

所以今天的美国靠借贷过豪华的日子,美国人民觉得理所当然,一点点羞愧之心都没有。为什么要有?美国人认为能借到钱是我的本事。

中国人省吃俭用,甚至还有一亿人在贫穷线下挣扎,却把省下来的钱借给老美挥霍。你以为美国人有心存感激吗?没有,美国人认为这是你傻,有钱不会花。美国人认为借贷是一种交易,任何交易都是公平的。

若是有一天美国不愿意还钱,你以为美国人会认为自己理亏吗?不会,美国人认为你的借款要不回来那是你没本事。(读者把西方哲学再念一遍就豁然贯通了。)

所以不要以为美国负债已经这么高了,她就不再向外国借钱或有所节制。美国不会的,他照样张大口向中国借钱,因为美国人认为只要中国借钱给他,他做的事就是对的,并且还要作书立论,把自己的行为合理化。

寅吃卯粮的消费方式被美国经济学家论述成先进的经济模式,对中国人而言是不可思议的,这完全不合儒家文化勤俭持家的哲学思想。美国人用前提不存在的繁杂数学论述西方的经济理论把全球骗得一楞一楞的,连中国人都半信半疑,半疑是因为违反中国几千年的传统,半信是因为美国的繁荣非常真实。直到美国经济的泡沫破灭,中国这才恢复了自信。

2008年是人类文明发展史上非常值得纪念的一年。

这些年来美国的财政部长一上任,他的首要任务就是到各国演讲推销美国的政府公债。

去年一月,盖斯纳 走马上任美国财政部长。依照惯例,他到中国来推销美国政府公债,并且在北京大学发表演说。当盖斯纳说到「购买美国公债非常安全」的时候,整个厅堂爆发哄堂大笑。这件事在美国引起很多评论,美国政府非常不高兴,认为中国人太过自大,暗示美国官员遭到如此羞辱,以后一定会给中国好看,还以颜色。

YST 看到这则新闻非常高兴。美国唬弄人的把戏早被中国人看穿了,还不是大人,是二十岁左右的小毛头。中国的年轻学生已经不会盲目崇拜外国的名人和学者,这是自信的表现。

早些时候,克鲁曼获得诺贝尔经济奖后就四处安排国外的演讲会吹嘘他的理论,另一方面也赚取庞大的演讲费。经济是软科学,诺贝尔经济奖被犹太人把持,这个奖的含金量很少,根本不值钱。YST 对克鲁曼的言论非常不以为然,譬如他说:「我们与中国的贸易总算变得公平与平衡:他们卖给我们有毒玩具和受污染的海产;我们卖给他们诈欺证券」。除此之外,克鲁曼赞成美国与中国展开贸易大战。这些都是非常轻佻的评论,说话有如小儿,没有什么知识性,令人更加看轻诺贝尔经济奖。

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